American retailers and pure players are looking forward to the Fourth of July holiday weekend despite an ongoing rise in new Coronavirus cases. California, Arizona, Texas, and Florida are all going back into lockdown after becoming hot spots again. Some of the states who reopened the earliest have seen the worst spikes. We will have to monitor how the holiday weekend impacts the 37 states that have either reopened for business or are in the process of reopening.
Yet in terms of e-commerce, many countries are seeing year-over-year growth in revenue, purchase orders, and AOV. Buying more online is permanent, and in cases where brick-and-mortars are forced to close their doors again, consumers are going to comfortably shift right back to their preferred online channels.
Welcome to the CCInsight project where we track how COVID-19 impacts consumer spending around the world. Here are some of the top e-commerce trends we’ve spotted over the past seven days.
UK Online Retail Rises Sharply as Shops Reopen
Since shops in the United Kingdom reopened on June 15th, the steep consumer-spending dive many retailers expected has not happened. The day before retailers opened for business again, British retail e-commerce revenue was at +41% YoY. By June 24th, though, that number more than doubled to +88% YoY.
Alex Timlin, senior vice president of verticals at Emarsys, interprets the data as an early sign of economic recovery: “The challenge for brands who run physical stores now is how to persuade customers to come back to shops when consumers have become accustomed to buying things online during lockdown. The in-store experience is going to be a key factor in driving that footfall.”
Nearly 100% E-Commerce and Retail Revenue Growth in the US Since Lockdown Began
With brick-and-mortar stores reopening in the US after three months of lockdown, the message is clear: total retail and e-commerce revenue is still growing with no indication that this will decline any time soon. The growth curve has flattened over the last two months, but it’s still up YoY. That’s despite AOVs declining overall since Q1 and the upcoming hit to the US consumer spending power when unemployment benefits run out at the end of July.
US Consumers Are Through with Bidets and Back to Sports
In March and April, US customers embraced bidets when toilet paper couldn’t stay in stock long enough to meet the over-the-top demand.
Now with summer in full swing and millions of people wanting to get outside to exercise and play sports, the top eight products in year-over-year uplift are all sporting equipment and hobbies:
Skipping rope +3,203%
Basketball shoes +3,165%
Boxing gloves +2,374%
Soccer balls +1,588% but falling over the last week
Golf equipment +1,223%
Motorcycle helmets +1,132%
Data Insights for the Week
Pure e-commerce AOV growth in the Americas is led by Argentina this week, but growth is down for the region compared to Europe. However, the Americas do lead in retail online AOV growth with Brazil at the top after many months of negative growth.
AOV Increase Leaders at a Glance
European pure e-commerce AOV growth is led by Norway and Croatia — the latter is also doing quite well in retail online AOV increases — with newcomer Estonia making it into the #5 spot. Romania still sits at the top of retail online AOV growth, but France, Portugal, and Serbia are posting good results too this week.
AOV Increase Leaders at a Glance
APAC AOV growth in pure e-commerce is modest with bigger gains in retail online, but the AOV story in the region concerns China and South Korea. China has the best pure-play growth and the worst retail online growth, while South Korea is exactly the opposite, leading retail online and last in pure e-commerce.
AOV Increase Leaders at a Glance
Top Product Trends of This Week
Key Product Trend Insights: Athletic shoes are the highest-performing this week, but we’re seeing huge increases in home repair products and appliances as consumers keep themselves busy at home.
Growth Rate of Online Transactions
AOV growth shows lower numbers than revenue and purchase orders, but it’s a good metric for measuring how much consumers are spending. Over the last four weeks, consumer spending has declined. This may become a larger indicator of the long-term impact that the COVID-19 recession will take on personal finances as unemployment benefits end in some parts of the world.
Trends by Region
Pure e-commerce: AOV growth YoY in this category is dominated by APAC, though total growth is just above 0% for the region, with Europe on a decline at -6% and the Americas struggling to stay above -10%.
Retail online: The Americas are seeing the most retail e-commerce AOV growth, though still below -5% YoY. Even though they had growth above 5% in the third week of June, APAC has suffered a precipitous drop in the last week. Europe’s doing even worse with total AOV growth at -23%.
Trends by Country
Pure e-commerce: Few countries have seen AOV growth in the last month in the Americas. However, in the last four weeks, Argentina has seen the most at 14% YoY, with Canada (+1%) and Jamaica (+0.72%) being the other only countries with positive growth.
For YoY AOV growth this week, Argentina is on top at +27%, Colombia at +18%, Jamaica at +7%, and Canada at +3%. Near the bottom is the United States at -9% AOV growth YoY and Mexico at -35%, unable to correct the downward trend the country’s been on for more than a month.
Though down 57% over the last four weeks, Croatia leads European pure e-commerce AOV growth with +42% YoY, followed by Norway +40% YoY (-10% in the last month), the Czech Republic +38% (-8% in the last month), and Sweden +24% (+37% in the last month).
With a 21% increase in AOV YoY, Estonia makes it into the top five leaderboard for the first time since the pandemic began. Unfortunately, most of the region’s growth results are single-digit or varying degrees of decline. Down 4% over the last month, the United Kingdom finishes the week well with +12% AOV growth YoY whereas Germany sits steady at -0.02%, France is down -22%, Spain at -31%, and Italy down 44% YoY.
In APAC’s pure e-commerce, China leads AOV increases by a substantial margin with +40% YoY. The next closest are New Zealand +7.5% (-7% in the last month), Australia +3% (-2% in the last month), and India +0.36%. However, China’s retail e-commerce is not faring as well, performing 124% worse than pure players.
Everyone else is suffering YoY declines. In the last four weeks, Malaysia fell 23% and Vietnam fell 48%, both below 0% YoY now. Elsewhere, South Korea sits at -26% AOV growth YoY, Indonesia is down 50%, and Japanese consumers are not spending money, bringing the country to a -78% AOV growth deficit.
Retail online: Brazil has made amazing gains in AOV growth YoY in the Americas. Finishing this week at +99% (and that’s down 20% in the last two weeks), Brazil peaked at +139% on June 27th. Not far behind are Ecuador (+82% YoY, -35% in the last month), Mexico (+12% YoY, +24% in the last month), Chile (+9% YoY, +4% in the last month), and a steady Canada (+7% YoY, -1% in the last month). The US is down 6% YoY though AOV has increased 6% over the last four weeks.
Retail e-commerce YoY AOV growth in Europe is led by two countries where consumers are purchasing more valuable items online than the rest of the region. Two weeks ago, Romania was at 0%; today AOV YoY is up 48%. Croatia fell 13% during the same time but finishes the week at +45% YoY.
The other three countries in the top five start at 26% lower than the top two, with France at +19% (no change over the last two weeks), Portugal at +15% (+17% in the last two weeks), and Serbia at +13% despite a 19% decline in the last two weeks.
In the last month, Greece has fallen 198% in AOV growth to -4% YoY. The United Kingdom has taken a steep dive of -88% in the same time but finishes lower than Greece at -45% YoY. Most of the rest of the region is doing poorly too: Russia has -10% AOV growth YoY, Italy -25%, Spain -46%, and Poland -78%. Two bright spots are Germany at +5% YoY this week as the country steadily recovers, and the rising Baltic country Estonia at +11% YoY.
South Korea tops the APAC region with +70% AOV growth YoY, revealing that South Koreans are more comfortable spending money online with retailers rather than pure players (-26% AOV growth YoY).
The next closest countries start at 57% lower than South Korea, with Malaysia at +13% YoY (-6% in the last month), Taiwan at +11% (+4% in the last month), New Zealand at +10% (-12% in the last month), Australia +2% (-6% in the last month), and India +0.76% (-79% in the last four weeks).
The rest of the region is experiencing AOV growth declines with Japan at -7%, Thailand at -13%, Vietnam at -19% (after falling 53% in the last month), and China is down -84% YoY.